CIIDWPNo.52-Li, Shi-New Patterns of China's Rural Poverty
Li, Shi; Zhan, Peng; Shen, Yangyang
Published: 2016/7/31 22:39:51    Updated time: 2016/12/16 18:55:31
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the rural poverty structures. According to China Household Income Project Data (CHIP1988, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2013), this paper mainly includes two sections: (1) Present the anti-poverty trend and find the problems in recent three decades. (2) Analyze the poverty structures in the new period on the basis of comparison with other periods. There are three aspects considered in poverty structures: the factors may raise household income; the factors may reduce household consumption expenditure; other factors related with poverty alleviation goals. Conclusions: along with the reduction of poverty rate, the poverty depth increased after 2007; along with the reduction of absolute poverty rate, the relative poverty rate kept increasing. Furthermore, according to the analysis of poverty reasons, this paper find the positive effects of rural social security policies on some features of households after 2007; but 16-60 age disable members, proportion of 0-15 age children, health problem of elders are still the important factors in the new period.
Keywords: Poverty Structure; Absolute Poverty Rate; Relative Poverty Rate

(Frist version; 2016/5/1; Revised in 2016/12/15)


    Li, Shi, IZA and Business School, Beijing Normal University

    Zhan, Peng, School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics

    Shen, Yangyang, OPHI in Oxford University and Business School in Beijing Normal University


1 Introduction

Since Chinese reform and opening up policies, the poverty persons and rate are declined dramatically, and improving the world anti-poverty work vigorously. After the policies of "National Eight-Seven Alleviation Program(1994-2000)" (国家八七扶贫攻坚计划 , 1994-2000) and "China's Rural Poverty Alleviation and Development Project(2001-2010)" ( 中国农村扶贫开发刚要 , 2001-2010), Chinese Government released "China's Rural Poverty Alleviation and Development Project(2011-2020)" in 2010, which declared the goals in 2020 of "stability to achieve the goals of no worry with food and clothing, guarantee the alleviation objects' compulsory education, basic medical care, and housing" (两不愁、三保障 ) . In 2015, Chinese government released "the decisions on winning the battle of poverty alleviation", further supplemented the goals of "to ensure all rural objects out of poverty under the current standards". On the specific actions, “Five Measurements” (" 五个一批") was raised by Xi Jinping, the leader of Chinese government, on the Poverty Reduction and Development Forum in Oct. 16th, 2015. However, after more than two decades' efforts, nowaday poverty structure has been changed and the anti-poverty difficulties are gradually increased . To achieve the goals in 2020, we need to understand the new pattern of poverty in new period.

What's the new pattern? It contains two considerations: at first, the geographical distribution of poverty population is more dispersive in the new period and it contains another challenge comparing to the situation in the early stage of Reform and Opening-up that most of rural population was in poverty status. The target of poverty policies should be more precise. Second, nowadays Chinese economy scale becomes the second big one in the world, the economic condition, economic structure, and the government's efforts on rural social security are far different from 30 years ago. There are more options for the anti-poverty policy in the new period. Considering this background, we hope to have a better understanding on current poverty achievements and difficulties according to the comparison with the past poverty patterns.

Based on the background of China's anti-poverty, this paper uses the data from China Household Income Projects in different years, analyzes the new patterns of China poverty, and provides the reference for current and future poverty alleviation. There are two principal questions: 1) what's the features of poverty people in new period? 2) What's the main reasons of poverty? What's the differences from the past?

The next section will introduce the poverty standards, evaluation approaches, and CHIP data in this paper; the 3rd section will report the poverty distribution in China based on the Chinese official data and CHIP data; the 4th section reports the poverty structures in different periods; the 5 th section search the most important factors in statistical sense by probit regression model; the 6th section is the conclusions.


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